A study published this week by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice found no link between the prisoner releases resulting from sentencing reform provisions of California’s Prop. 47, which opponents warned would cause a rise in crime, and general increases in the 2015 crime rate in the state. The study found:
“There are no obvious effects associated with Proposition 47 that would be expected if the reform had a significant and consistent impact on crime. In fact, many cities in counties that experienced larger declines in local and state incarcerated populations after Proposition 47 took effect had more favorable crime trends.
It is too early to conclusively measure the effects of Proposition 47 on crime rates just one year after the law took effect. The urban crime increase in the first half of 2015 could be a normal fluctuation, such as those that occurred from 1999 to 2001 or from 2005 to 2006 (CJSC, 2016). Initial trends are often reversed later. In the case of Realignment, implemented in 2011, crime initially increased in 2012, but later declined sharply in 2013 and 2014.”